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March 06, 2006

Republicans After Bush

Niall Ferguson is best known as a sometimes-apologist for imperialism, but this piece from the L.A. Times on the collapse of the Bush imperial dream is spot on. (Via Ygelseias on TPMCafe.)

What creeps me, though, is the thought that the Republicans could run a sensible "maverick" like McCain or Hegel - or even just throw a sop to that chunk of the party by running one as VP with a mandate to run foreign policy at the White House) - and the party could never have to face an "accountability moment" for Bushism and all it's wrought. Maybe it's worth the tradeoff - maybe just like "only Nixon could go to China," it'll turn out that "only McCain (or Hegel, or whoever) could withdraw from Iraq." I'd probably take that over a President Hilary Clinton deciding (as she might, I fear) that she has to placate the right by staying bogged down into the next decade.

But in terms of progressive strategy, it would be a catastrophe if the collapse of Bushism, at home and abroad, weren't exploited as a crucial teaching moment. The Bush implosion should give Dems a landslide in '06 the way Watergate did for the famous reformist Dem "class of '74." (Whatever happened to them?) But I greatly fear the Dems are going to blow it through cowardice and clumsiness.

What the Dems need is a smart, coherent strategy to nationalise the '06 elections, and mobilize the base and the disaffected - young voters, nonvoters, working-class Bush supporters - to turn out in numbers the batterred and disillusioned Republicans can't match. A real "throw the bums out" environment is the way to neutralize the Republican incumbency/gerrymandering edge by making every district competitive.

In turn, following the Watergate::Plamegate/Katrinagate/Wiretappinggate/Dubaigate/etc. analogies, a successful Congressional Dem takover in '06 should set the stage for a reform-oriented, "outsider" Democrat to galvanize the party in '08 the way Carter did in '76, Hopefully, whoever shows up for that slot - whether it's John Edwards, Russ Feingold, whoever - can replace Carter's combination of strategic clumsiness and political caution with Clinton's charm and FDR's vision.

Because otherwise, paying the piper from '08-'12 - escaping Iraq, raising taxes to cut the deficit, fixing health care one way or another - is going to eat the next president, Democratic or Republican, alive. We can only hope that whoever the president is - Democrat or Republic - they have the courage to do what the country needs and make a clean break from the debacle we'll remember as the Bush Years.

Posted by tedf at March 6, 2006 11:45 PM

Comments

Ack! Ted, you got rid of the beard! Us bearded folk are supposed to stick together :-p

I personally feel the Dems have WAY too much to worry about in their own house before celebrating any idea of a landslide victory (of course, I'm a major critic of both major parties so that's just what I'm always going to say...). A change in candidate can do a lot. A lot of people forget that after Watergate, etc., Ford still didn't exactly wimper off and die (taking 44% of the electoral vote and 48% of the popular). A converse example was in Canada was when Brian Mulroney stepped down in 1993 but it didn't help his party any and they were reduced to a humbling two seats in the House of Commons.

I wish the next president well; as you pointed out, they'll have a mountain of problems to deal with.

BMN

Posted by: BMN [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 7, 2006 05:18 PM

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