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May 19, 2006

Summer Movie Pool

Every summer since 2001, I've participated with a few dozen film academics and fellow travelers in a summer movie pool. We all predict the top ten summer box office grossers, and whoever's list comes closest wins. (The specific rules are way too detailed to list here, or for me to even remember - these are academics, after all.)

I came in third my first year, but it's been downhill ever since. This year's a real tricky one to predict - I'm very confident in Superman Returns at #1, but after that, it's a real crapshoot.

The ballots were due on May 15, but movies released before then still count. So, we were all able to take into account the disappointing openings of MI:III and Poseidon. I've concluded audiences this year are unmotivated to rush to the theaters for bigger, louder sequels and remakes, figuring they can eventually catch them on DVD. But everybody needs a summer movie fix eventually, so I'm betting on Superman Returns as the movie that brings the nation together, Da Vinci Code as the must-see object of controversy, and Cars as the kids' movie adults enjoy too. (I guess Superman Returns is kind of a remake/sequel, but the previews suggest Brian Singer's produced a fresh take on the material - an idealistic antidote to our ugly era.)

On the other hand, I almost always underestimate the power of the mediocre sequel - junk like Rush Hour 2 and Austin Powers 3 have been my undoing, year after year. But some years, the audience does rebel. So far, this is looking like one of those years.

Not that my entry is full of European art flicks. Here's my complete list:

1. Superman Returns
2. The Da Vinci Code
3. Cars
4. Pirates of the Caribbean II
5. X-Men III
6. Mission Impossible III
7. Click
8. The Break-Up
9. The Lake House
10. Nacho Libre

We also get to pick three "dark horses":
Talladega Nights
Little Miss Sunshine
A Scanner Darkly

And we each pick a catchphrase every year. This year, mine comes from blockbuster savant George Lucas. According to Harrison Ford and Carrie Fisher, it's the only direction he ever gave them on the set: "Faster, more intense."

All the summer movie pool results since 2002 are online here. You'll just have to take my word for it that I finished in the money in 2001.

UPDATE: I take it back. Complete top finishers since the pool's start back in 1994, including corroboration of my 2001 finish, are available on this Hall of Fame page.

Posted by tedf at May 19, 2006 11:24 AM

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Posted by: Michael Becker at August 2, 2006 12:04 PM

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